林权改革条件下木材价格波动机制实证研究  

Empirical Research on Timber Price Fluctuation Mechanism under the Condition of Forestry Tenure Reform

作　　者：石榴红[1] 张时淼[1] 王硕[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安710061

出　　处：《林业经济》2014年第9期59-64,共6页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家林业局软科学研究;中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"林权改革条件下我国木材价格波动机制研究"(编号:2012-R03)

摘　　要：在理论推导的基础上，设计了木材价格影响因素指标体系，运用2000-2011年我国木材价格相关数据，对政策、需求、供给、进出口等因素对木材价格的影响程度及传导过程做了实证研究。研究结果显示：林权改革政策对木材价格有着显著的影响，随着林权改革政策的推行，木材价格呈现下降趋势；GDP的增长带动了木材价格的提升，这种提升效果增长缓慢但非常持久；国内木材产量并未对价格产生显著影响；木材净进口量对木材价格有显著的负向影响，这种影响在第二期达到最大，之后将有所回落。On the basis of the theoretical derivation, the design of the timber price index system of influencing factors, using China lumber prices 2000-2011 data, the factors such as policy, supply, demand, import and export of lumber prices made empirical research on the influence degree and the conduction process. Research results show that the forest right reform policy has obvious effects of lumber prices, with the implementation of the forest right reform policies, timber prices showed a trend of decline; GDP growth, and so did the timber price promotion, the promotion effect of slow hut very persistent; Domestic timber production does not have a significant impact on prices; Wood net imports of lumber prices have a significant negative impact, the impact in the second phase of the maximum, then fell back.

关 键 词：林权改革 木材价格 影响因素 传导方式 

分 类 号：F326.24[经济管理—产业经济]