金融危机背景下国家主权信用评级影响因素分析——基于27个OECD国家面板数据的研究  

Determinants of Sovereign Credit Ratings against the Background of Financial Crisis: An Analysis based on the Panel Data of 27 OECD Countries

作　　者：那明[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2014年第10期28-33,88,共6页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：本文利用27个OECD国家1999～2012年378个面板数据，对主权信用评级结果可能产生影响的因素进行实证分析。研究发现，人均GDP、GDP增长率和经常账户余额的增加会令国际评级机构调高一个国家的主权信用评级；政府债务负担的累积、失业率增加和通货膨胀率的上升会令国际评级机构下调一个国家的主权信用评级；而政府出现的财政盈余或是赤字并不会显著地令评级机构上调或是下调评级结果。国际评级机构的评级行为能够体现一定的公允性和公信力，在对欧债危机爆发最严重的5个国家进行评级时并不存在恶意下调的举动。This paper,taking the panel data of 27 OECD countries from 1999 to 2012,empirically analyzes the determinants that can affect a country's sovereign credit rating issued by international rating agencies. The result shows that GDP per capital,GDP growth rate and current account surplus can affect rating agencies to upgrade a country's sovereign rating,and government debts,unemployment rate and inflation rate can make rating agencies lower a country's sovereign rating,but the occurrence of fiscal surplus or deficit will not significantly bring about the upgrading or downgrading of the rating results. The rating made by international rating agencies is comparatively fair and trustworthy since they did not maliciously downgrade the sovereign credit rating of the PIGGS where European sovereign debt crisis had severely taken place.

关 键 词：主权信用评级 影响因素 评级机构 欧债危机 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学] F224