水上危险货物运输管理系统动力学仿真  

System dynamic simulation on management of dangerous goods water transportation

作　　者：席永涛[1,2] 陈杰[1] 胡甚平[1] 郭云龙[1] 许玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2014年第3期7-11,56,共6页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51149001);广东省交通运输厅科技项目(201202004);上海海事大学校基金(20120057)

摘　　要：为完善水上危险货物运输管理系统,降低事故发生的可能性,对水上危险货物运输管理系统进行动力学仿真.通过探究水上危险货物运输风险成因机理,分析人、设备、环境、管理、货物等5大风险因素间的因果关系,建立水上危险货物运输系统动力学模型;通过调研和专家调查问卷,获取相关数据,采用Vensim对不同管理政策下的危险货物运输事故进行模拟,获得12年的变化趋势.仿真结果显示,人、设备、环境和管理的风险值的降低都能降低危险货物运输风险,其中,人的风险值对危险货物运输事故的影响程度最大,这说明人的安全管理政策较其他安全管理制度更加重要,据此提出降低水上危险货物运输风险的建议.In order to improve the management system of dangerous goods water transportation and reduce the possibility of the accidents, the dynamic simulation on the management system of dangerous goods water transportation is carried out. Through the study on the risk formation mechanism of dangerous goods water transportation and the analysis on the causality among the five risk factors of human, facility, environment, management and goods, the system dynamic model of dangerous goods water transportation is established; the relevant data are obtained through investigation and expert questionnaires; the accidents of dangerous goods transportation under different management policies are modeled by Vensim, and then the variation trend in 12 years is achieved. The simulation results show that reducing the values at risk of human, facility, environment and management can all reduce the risk of the dangerous goods transportation, where the value at risk of human have the biggest effect on accidents of dangerous goods transportation. It means that the human＇ s safety management policy is much more important than any other safety management system, and hereby some suggestions are proposed to reduce the risk of dangerous goods water transportation.

关 键 词：水上运输 危险货物 系统动力学 风险值 安全管理 

分 类 号：U695.292[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] U692[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]