基于果因倒逼的宏观社会矛盾预警指标体系构建  

On the Construction of the Early Warning Index System for Macro Social Contradictions Based on the Effect-to-Cause Reasoning

作　　者：王林[1] 黄利芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院,重庆400045

出　　处：《上海大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第5期79-90,共12页Journal of Shanghai University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(11XZZ001);教育部社会科学一般项目(10YJA810027);中央高校专项研究经费资助项目(CDJSK100191)

摘　　要：群体性事件的发生主要是由社会矛盾引起的。通过果因倒逼的方法,对引发群体性事件的社会矛盾进行分析,可从源头上对群体性事件进行预防。而社会矛盾可以归因于社会各个子系统的不稳定,因此,可通过构建社会各个子系统的定量分析模型,确定各个指标体系所占的权重,构建社会矛盾预警指标体系,并给出基于果因倒逼的宏观社会矛盾预警指标的阈值。Group incidents are mainly caused by social contradictions. Based on the effect-to-cause rea- soning, this article analyses the social contradictions that could lead to group incidents, with the purpose of preventing such events at source. Given that social contradictions arise from the instability of various subsys- tems, this article proposes a quantitative analysis model to determine the weight of each subsystem and then constructs an early warning index system for social contradictions. By the method of effect-to-cause reasoning, the threshold of macro social contradictions is also tentatively provided here.

关 键 词：社会管理 社会矛盾 社会冲突 预警指标体系 群体性事件 

分 类 号：C916[经济管理]