基于航迹预测的实时船舶安全预警方法  

A real-time ship safety early warning method based on trajectory prediction

作　　者：桑凌志[1,2,3] 毛喆[1,2,3] 张文娟[1,2,3] 严新平[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,湖北武汉430063 [2]水路公路交通安全控制与装备教育部工程研究中心,湖北武汉430063 [3]交通运输部长江航运技术行业研发中心水上交通安全与防污染研发基地,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2014年第8期164-169,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51309187);交通运输部西部科技建设重大专项(2011328201110)

摘　　要：为实现船舶实时安全预警,以帮助驾驶员及时发现航行危险,预防水上交通事故发生,基于可采集的实时船舶自动识别系统(AIS)、水文、气象及基础通航要素等信息,对船舶的航迹进行预测。通过计算动态最近会遇距离(DCPA)和最近会遇时间(TCPA)得到航行空间危险度和时间危险度,进而得到船舶实时航行风险指标,最终实现船舶实时安全预警。以力源2轮撞武汉长江大桥的事故为例,对水域内船舶进行实时监控,在事故发生前自动判别该船航行异常情况,提前发现航行危险,并实现实时预警。结果表明,该方法能弥补现有船舶安全预警系统的不足,及时有效地发现船舶高风险航行行为,并进行实时预警。To achieve real time early warning of ship safety, assist the ship officer in estimating the risk timely and avoiding the ship accident, a novel method is developed for predicting ship trajectory. Based on collected real time information, such as AIS information, hydrological and weather information, foundational navigation elements information, ship ＇s trajectories could be predicted. After computing ship ＇s dynamic values of DCPA and TCPA, the shipg dynamic space risk and time risk can be calculated to obtain the real-time navigation risk, the real time early warning can be achieved finally. The accident involving Liyuan 2 and the Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge is analyzed as a case study. By using the proposed method, ships in target area could be supervised. When an urgent situation is about to happen, it can be judged automatically, whilst the accident risk can be distinguished in advance, the real-time early warning function can be achieved. The results show that proposed method can make up for shortcomings of existing systems, with detecting the high risk navigation behaviors and giving an alarm timely and effectively.

关 键 词：实时预警 自动识别系统(AIS) 航迹预测 最近会遇距离(DCPA) 最近会遇时间(TCPA) 

分 类 号：X924.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]