中国煤炭供需安全度测算——基于TOPSIS方法的实证研究  

Safety Degree Calculation of Coal Supply and Demand in China:Based on TOPSIS Method

作　　者：田时中[1] 赵鹏大[2] 田家华[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2014年第5期71-78,共8页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10CJY025);安徽大学博士科研启动经费项目(J01001319)

摘　　要：依据能源安全理论,运用TOPSIS方法测算中国煤炭供需安全度。确定中国煤炭供需安全评价指标体系及数据来源,对2008-2011年中国煤炭供需数据进行极差处理;运用层次分析法和熵值法确定评价指标权重;对评价矩阵加权规范化计算;最后,依据方案贴近度进行综合评价。结果显示2008—2011年,中国煤炭供需安全度依次为0.426 5,0.411 8,0.602 0,0.567 8。取安全度系数0.5,则2008年和2009年中国煤炭供需不安全,2010年和2011年煤炭供需形势比较乐观。维护中国煤炭供需安全需要增加煤炭探明储量、提高替代能源消费比例和维持煤炭供需增速稳定。This paper calculates the safety degree of coal supply and demand of China based on the theory Firstly,it confirms the evaluation index system and data sources and uses the method of range to process supply and demand in China from 2008 to 2011. Secondly, it confirms the weight of evaluation index by of energy security the data of the coal means of AHP and entropy method. Thirdly, it calculates the weighted normalized decision matrix. Finally, it conducts a comprehensive analysis according to the close degree of the scheme. The results show that the safety degrees from 2008 to 2011 were 0. 426 5, 0. 411 8, 0. 602 0, and 0. 567 8. If the safety ratio is 0.5,then the coal supply and demand from 2008 and 2009 was not safe while the situation was relatively optimistic in 2010 and 2011. Therefore,it is necessary to increase the explored reserve of coal, improve the proportion of the alternative energy consumption and maintain the stable growth of coal supply and demand, so as to maintain the coal safety of supply and demand of China.

关 键 词：煤炭安全 煤炭供需安全度 TOPSIS方法 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济]