中韩农产品贸易增长特质及影响因素研究  

Growth of Agricultural Trade between China and South Korea:A Study on Characteristics and Contributing Factors

作　　者：王元彬[1] 郑学党[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2014年第10期88-98,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"亚太主要区域贸易协定的生产网络效应与中国对策研究"(14BGJ046)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：中韩农产品贸易规模不断扩大,农产品问题成为两国FTA谈判的敏感议题。文章基于1990-2013年UN Comtrade相关数据,利用恒定市场份额模型从市场需求引致效应、出口结构效应和竞争力效应三个方面分析中韩农产品贸易增长主导因素及各方面对两国农产品贸易增长贡献。研究发现,市场需求引致效应是中韩农产品贸易增长的首要因素;出口结构效应制约了两国农产品贸易增长,尤其是韩国对中国农产品出口结构与中国消费结构的错位导致这种负面效应更加明显;出口竞争力效应拉动了中国对韩国的农产品出口增长,但竞争优势不具备持久稳定性,而韩国农产品竞争力下降阻碍了其对中国出口增长。为扩大中韩农产品贸易规模,提高贸易质量,两国应该根据彼此市场消费变化,调整农产品贸易结构;加强农业合作交流,扩大互补性农产品出口;推进中国农业生产规模化和集约化,促进农产品价格竞争力向非价格竞争力转变;在FTA谈判中,可借鉴美韩FTA农产品开放条款,合理设计中韩FTA谈判策略。Despite that the agricultural trade between China and South Korea is continually expanding, agricultural trade has become a sensitive issue in Chi- na-South Korea FTA negotiations. Based on 1990-2012 trade data from UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database, this paper analyzes the contributing factors of the growth of China-South Korea agricultural trade from the perspectives of market demand effect, export structure effect and competitiveness effect by using the CMS model （Constant Market Share）. The findings suggest that the market de- mand effect is the primary stimulating factor for the trade growth; the export structure effect restrains trade growth, and the restraining effect is intensified by the mismatch between the agricultural export structure of South Korea and China＇ s consumption structure; the competitiveness effect reinforces China＇s export in- crease to South Korea, while the competitive advantage is not lasting and stable, and the fall in the competitiveness of the South Korean agricultural products leads to its declining export. In order to expand the scale of trade in agricultural products and improve the quality of trade, this paper suggests that the two countries should dwell on consumer demand to adjust the export structure, strengthen agricultural cooperation and exchanges, expand exports of complementary agricul- tural products, promote China＇s agricultural production scale and intensiveness, and materialize the transformation from pricing competitiveness to non-price com- petitiveness. China is also advised to readily learn from the US-South Korea FTA agricultural trade terms and optimize the negotiating guidelines.

关 键 词：中韩农产品贸易 CMS模型 非价格竞争力 FTA谈判 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]