基于货币锚效应模型的“两岸四地”人民币区构建实证研究  

Empirical Studies On Building Renminbi Area in the Four-rigion Across the Strait :Base on A Currency Anchor Model

作　　者：张大威[1] 谢宝剑[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广州510632

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第5期37-46,共10页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71103204);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地--中山大学港澳珠江三角洲研究中心基地项目"粤港澳区域合作博弈策略研究";中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目--2013年度暨南大学科研培育与创新基金项目(13JNQN 004);广东省普通高校人文社会科学重点研究基地--暨南大学广东产业发展与粤港澳台区域合作研究中心项目

摘　　要：在复杂的国际经济背景下,"两岸四地"各执一币的格局加大了协同抵抗金融风险的难度,也成为"两岸四地"经贸深入合作和经济进一步融合发展的阻碍。通过以"两岸四地"货币合作的宏观经济基础为前提,从多边汇率相互影响的角度出发,采用"货币锚"效应模型考察人民币汇率的波动态势及其与"港澳台"三地货币之间的联动关系,从而揭示港币、澳门币和新台币对人民币的锚定程度。实证结果显示,"两岸四地"宏观经济政策目标一致性日趋增强,港澳台三地货币在对"锚货币"选择中汇率中人民币权重越来越大,因此"两岸四地"构建人民币区具有一定的可行性。Under the background of complex international economic situation, the pattern to which the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Tai-wan each hold one currency beeomes more difficult for synergistically resisting financial risks. Meanwhile it hinders the further development eeonom- ic integration of economy and trade cooperation for the Four - region across the strait. On the basis of the c monetary eooperation in the Four - region Across the Strait, this paper takes account of multilateral exchange rate influence between each other, and through a Monetary Anchor Effect model explores the fluctuation trend of RMB exchange rate and its linkage relationship between Hong Kong dollar , Macan Patacas , New Tai- wan dollar. The empirical results show that the c policy goal consistency gets increasingly enhanced, and the exchange rate of RMB accounts for an bigger weight in anchor currency choosing for Hong Kong dollar , Macao Patacas , new Taiwan dollar. Finally we include that building a RMB Bloc in the Four - region across the strait of China has a certain feasibility.

关 键 词：最优货币区 汇率指数 货币锚效应 人民币区 

分 类 号：F831.5[经济管理—金融学] F832.3