我国涉农供应链中牛鞭效应的案例研究  

Case Study on Bullwhip Effect in Agricultural Supply Chains in China

作　　者：聂艳芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原旅游职业学院,山西太原030032

出　　处：《物流技术》2014年第9期355-358,416,共5页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：通过细分生产时间在整个供应链中的时间占比,采用案例分析的方式研究我国猪肉供应链中的牛鞭效应,建立了涉农供应链的简单二级模型、需求预测模型以及蛛网模型,分别用来研究订货提前期、市场供给以及市场价格与订货量之间的关系,对影响因素的重点进行细分并提出了相应的解决对策。In this paper, through analyzing the ratio of the production time in the whole supply chain operation time, and through a case study, we analyzed the bullwhip effect of the pork supply chain of China, built the simple twoechelon model, as well as the demand forecasting mode and spiderweb model, of the agricultural supply chain, the latter two of which were used respectively to investigate the relationship between ordering lead time and market supply and between market price and ordering volume, and at the end, proposed the corresponding countermeasures.

关 键 词：牛鞭效应 涉农供应链 需求预测模型 

分 类 号：F252.21[经济管理—国民经济]