Sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources in the arid Shiyang River Basin of Northwest China  

作　　者：Long WAN Jun XIA HongMei BU Si HONG JunXu CHEN LiKe NING 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Sciences,Wuhan University

出　　处：《Journal of Arid Land》2014年第6期656-667,共12页干旱区科学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB956204, 2010CB428406);CAS-CSIRO Cooperative Research Program (GJHZ1223)

摘　　要：The sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources to climate change is difficult to assess. In this study, we used a conceptual hydrologic model to investigate the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change. We also pro- posed a framework to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in arid regions. We applied this framework to a case study of the Shiyang River Basin in Northwest China. Results showed that the precipitation and streamflow in Shiyang River Basin exhibited no significant trends of change from 1956 to 2010. In the past five decades, however, the temperature increased significantly by 0.37℃ per decade. According to the sensitivity assessment, a 10% in- crease in precipitation and a 1℃ increase in temperature altered mean annual streamflow by averages of 14.6% and -0.5%, respectively, from 1988 to 2005. In the 2000s, the calculated vulnerability of water resources in Shiyang River Basin was more than 0.95, indicating severe vulnerability. The increase in the amount of precipitation and the imple- mentation of water-saving measures can reduce the vulnerability of water resources in the future; if precipitation in- creases by 10% per decade and the use of irrigation water decreases by 15% in the 2030s, the evaluated value of water resources vulnerability will be reduced to 0.79. However, the region remains highly vulnerable. The proposed framework for vulnerability assessment can be applied to the arid regions in Northwest China, and the results of our efforts can identify adaptation strategies and improve the management of water resources in such regions.The sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources to climate change is difficult to assess. In this study, we used a conceptual hydrologic model to investigate the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change. We also pro- posed a framework to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in arid regions. We applied this framework to a case study of the Shiyang River Basin in Northwest China. Results showed that the precipitation and streamflow in Shiyang River Basin exhibited no significant trends of change from 1956 to 2010. In the past five decades, however, the temperature increased significantly by 0.37℃ per decade. According to the sensitivity assessment, a 10% in- crease in precipitation and a 1℃ increase in temperature altered mean annual streamflow by averages of 14.6% and -0.5%, respectively, from 1988 to 2005. In the 2000s, the calculated vulnerability of water resources in Shiyang River Basin was more than 0.95, indicating severe vulnerability. The increase in the amount of precipitation and the imple- mentation of water-saving measures can reduce the vulnerability of water resources in the future; if precipitation in- creases by 10% per decade and the use of irrigation water decreases by 15% in the 2030s, the evaluated value of water resources vulnerability will be reduced to 0.79. However, the region remains highly vulnerable. The proposed framework for vulnerability assessment can be applied to the arid regions in Northwest China, and the results of our efforts can identify adaptation strategies and improve the management of water resources in such regions.

关 键 词：climate change streamflow sensitivity water resources vulnerability arid regions 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]