城镇化与二元经济转型的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析  

On the Dynamic Relationship between Urbanization and Dual Economic Transition——an Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

作　　者：孙亚南[1] 张桂文[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《信阳师范学院学报（哲学社会科学版）》2014年第5期52-57,共6页Journal of Xinyang Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD146);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(11JJD810026);辽宁省教育厅重大基础理论项目(zw2013002);辽宁经济社会发展项目(2013lslktzijjx-03)

摘　　要：推进城镇化是促进二元经济转型的重要途径。采用1953—2012年时间序列数据建立VAR模型,通过协整关系检验、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应分析等方法对我国城镇化与二元经济转型之间的动态关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明,我国城镇化与二元经济转型之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,并具有反向修正机制,城镇化对二元经济转型的影响有短期时滞,长期有持续显著的正向冲击效应。Urbanization is an important way to promote dual economic transition .The paper makes an empirical study on the dynamic relationship between urbanization and dual economic transition in China by establishing VAR model and using Cointegration Test , Vec-tor Error Correction Model , Impulse Response Analysis and other methods based on the time series data from 1953 to 2012.The results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization and dual economic transition in China , and a reverse correction mechanism between them as well .The influence of urbanization on the dual economic transition is time delay in the short term, but sustainable and significant in the long run .

关 键 词：城镇化 二元经济转型 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]