基于修正Keyfitz城镇化模型的我国乡城人口净迁移比率研究  

Rural-Urban Net Population Migration Rate of China Based on the Modified Keyfitz Urbanization Model

作　　者：王开科[1] 王开泳[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行广州分行,中国广东广州510120 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国北京100101

出　　处：《经济地理》2014年第9期27-32,共6页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(09AZD045);国家自然科学基金项目(40901088;41371178);福建省社会科学基金项目(2013B066)

摘　　要：以Keyfitz模型及其扩展形式为研究切入点,通过城镇化率和农村人口自然增长率的估算来求取我国改革开放以来的乡城人口净迁移比率。对估计结果的分析显示:在1978—2011年中的绝大部分年份中均存在人口由农村向城镇转移的净增量,乡城人口净迁移比率表现出明显的波动特征,且经济、制度变革对这一周期性波动有较为显著的影响。从整体演进趋势来看,乡城人口净迁移比率波动有较为明显的平稳化趋向,而这可能是源自于近年来不断深入的户籍和社会保障制度改革的影响。The data of the rural-urban population migration is an important basic data to study the policy of populationmigration, the development of urbanization,.the reform of social security system and other issues.In China, because of thethe survey methodology and the statistical range adjustment, the maasures of the urban areas and the urban populationand other indicators lack the necessary convergence, so that it is very difficult to obtain the comparable rural-urbanpopulation migration ratio data which acrossing a long period of time just rely on olTlcial statistics alone. This paper usesthe Keyfitz model and its extended foum as the study point, and then calculates the rural-urban net population migrationrates since China＇ s reform and openning up through estimating the urbanization rate and the rural population naturalgrowth rate. The results show that there was a net increase of population from rural to urban areas for most of the yearsbetween 1978-2011, the rural-urban net population migration rate showed significant fluctuation, which the economic andthe system reform had a more significant impact on the cyclical fluctuation. From the overall evolution trend, thefluctuations of the rural-urban population net migration rate had a more significant smoothing trend which may bederived from the impact of the residence and cocial security system deepening reform in recent years.

关 键 词：乡城人口迁移 数据估算 Keyfitz模型 净迁移比率 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]