中国省域CO2排放时空格局分析  

Analysis of China’s Provincial Carbon Dioxide Emission Spatiotemporal Pattern

作　　者：李建豹[1] 张志强[1] 曲建升[1] 熊永兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心

出　　处：《经济地理》2014年第9期158-165,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05140100)

摘　　要：以人均CO2排放量为测度指标,定量计算了1999-2011年中国省域人均CO2排放的时间特征和空间演化特征,并基于空间计量模型分析了中国人均CO2排放的影响因素。研究表明：1人均CO2排放绝对差异呈逐年扩大趋势,相对差异呈波动变化趋势;集聚性呈先波动减小、后增加趋势;空间正相关性随距离增加减弱;人均CO2排放与人均GDP（1999年不变价）相关性减弱。2中国省域人均CO2排放空间格局比较稳定,各省域人均CO2排放在空间分布上存在一定的空间集群效应。3影响人均CO2排放量的最大驱动因子是碳排放强度,其次依次为劳动适龄人口比例、年末总人口、全社会固定资产投资和人均GDP（1999年不变价）。The paper takes per capita carbon dioxide emissions as measure index, to explore its evolution features of timeand space between 1999 and 2011, and analyzes the factors that affect the per capita carbon dioxide emissions based onspatial econometric models; this paper draws some conclusions as follows. （1）Per capita carbon dioxide emissionsabsolute difference shows increasing trend of absolute difference, relative difference is in a fluctuating trend. Aggregationis first fluctuating decreasing and then increasing. Spatial positive correlation is weakened as the increasing distance. Thecorrelation between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita GDP （1999 constant price） is weakened. （2） The space pattern of Chinese provincial per capita carbon dioxide emission is relatively stable, there is a certain space clustereffect in the spatial distribution. （3） Though analyzing the influence factors of per carbon dioxide emissions, gets someconclusions as follows. Carbon emission intensity is the greatest impact driving factor, followed by age population, totalpopulation, the total social fixed investment, per capita GDP（1999 constant price）.

关 键 词：人均CO2排放 碳排放强度 探索性空间数据分析(ESDA) 时间演化特征 空间演化特征 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]