传染病预测预警方法的研究进展  

Progress of the Methods to Prediction and Early Warning of Infectious Diseases

作　　者：曲江文[1] 聂绍发[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津市疾病预防控制中心,天津300011 [2]华中科技大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,武汉430030

出　　处：《医学与社会》2014年第10期13-15,共3页Medicine and Society

摘　　要：传染病预测预警是目前广泛关注的热点和难点。传染病预测预警的主要目的是通过监测早期发现传染病发生的异常先兆或事件发展的不良趋势,进而提高传染病预防控制工作的主动性和预见性。目前传染病预测预警的方法包括应用互联网和社交媒体等数字化手段进行预测预警,利用症状监测进行预测预警,通过监测传染病发生的影响因素进行预测预警,应用现代科学技术和各种数学模型进行预测预警等。传染病预测预警工作的研究方法不再局限于原有的流行病学理论,已经向学科交叉和综合应用转变,对现代公共卫生和流行病学的发展产生了深远影响。Infectious diseases prediction and early warning are hot and difficuh issues of widespread concern. The main objective is to fore- cast and early warning infectious disease threatened abnormal or undesirable trend of events occurring infectious disease through early detection and improve the initiative and foresight of prevention and control of infectious diseases. Methods currently forecast and early warning／of infectious diseases include the application of Internet and social media and other digital means, the use of symptom surveillance, influencing factors, modern advanced science and technology and a variety of mathematical models. The research methods are no longer confined to the existing epidemiologi- cal theory. These methods have transformed to interdisciplinary and integrated application and had a profound impact on the development of mod- cm public health and epidemiology.

关 键 词：传染病管理 预测预警 疾病监测 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]