基于生态足迹模型的湖北省可持续发展定量研究  

Quantitative Study on Sustainable Development of Hubei Based on Ecological Footprint Model

作　　者：李新尧 孙小舟[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北文理学院,湖北襄阳441053 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《河南科学》2014年第9期1884-1889,共6页Henan Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41101544);湖北省高等学校优秀中青年创新团队项目(T201314)

摘　　要：利用生态足迹评价模型,计算了湖北省1990—2012年的生态足迹和生态承载力,并通过灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测了湖北省2013—2020年的生态足迹、生态承载力和万元GDP生态足迹.结果显示:①1990—1995年的人均生态足迹低于人均生态承载力,资源环境能够满足社会经济发展的需求;②2000—2012年的人均生态足迹均高于人均生态承载力,社会经济发展处于不可持续状态;③万元GDP消耗的生态足迹由3.92 hm2下降到0.49 hm2,资源利用效率显著提高.④对生态足迹的预测表明,短期内湖北省生态赤字继续存在,其经济社会的持续发展依然面临挑战.Using ecological footprint model,we calculated the ecological footprint and the ecological carrying capacity of Hubei Province from 1990 to 2012,then predicted them by grey GM（1,1）. The results showed as follows.①From 1990-1995,the per capita ecological footprint were lower than per capita ecological carrying capacity ,so resources and environment could meet the needs of social and economic development;②The per capita ecological footprint from 2000 to 2012 were higher than the per capita ecological carrying capacity,so social and economic development were in a state of unsustainable;③The ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP decreased from 3.92 hm^2 to 0.49 hm^2,resource use efficiency improved significantly;④The prediction results of ecological footprint showed that the ecological deficit of Hubei will remain in the short time,its economic and social sustainable development still faces challenges.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态承载力 可持续发展 湖北省 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]