2013/14榨季国内外食糖市场回顾与2014/15榨季展望  

Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2013/14 Crushing Season and Its Prospect in 2014/15 Crushing Season

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 张宸[1] 刘国良 郑传芳[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学,北京100048 [2]国投中谷期货有限公司,北京100034 [3]福建农林大学,福建福州350002

出　　处：《农业展望》2014年第8期12-17,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部;财政部现代农业(甘蔗)产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-20-11B);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097);国际农业研究体系"糖料市场;贸易及产业政策研究"

摘　　要：2013/14榨季国内食糖生产已经全部结束,全国共生产食糖1 331.8万t,较上榨季的1 306.84万t增加1.91%。2013/14榨季国内食糖再次丰产,巨大的价差继续吸引进口食糖大量涌入国内市场,且国内涉糖行业需求疲软,国内糖价继续承受供需过剩的压力,国内糖价跌破5 000元/t之后长期在低位震荡。受长期低迷的糖价影响,2013年糖料种植面积缩减1.7%,至187万hm2。展望2014/15榨季,巴西、印度和澳大利亚等主产国纷纷调降了产量预估值,全球供需过剩有望缓解,如果发生厄尔尼诺现象则可能出现供需缺口,未来国际糖价或出现反弹。由于目前进口糖是中国食糖供需过剩的主要原因,所以2014/15榨季国内糖价在很大程度上将取决于全球食糖的产量。Domestic sugar production has finished in 2013/14 crushing season already, with the production of 13.318 million tons, up 1.91 percent compared to 13.068 4 million tons of last crushing season. Another good harvest in 2013/14, wide price spread leading huge imported sugar to pour into domestic market, and weak demand of domestic sugar-food industry, all made domestic sugar price remain under oversupply pressure, domestic sugar price fell below 5 000 yuan per ton and then fluctuated in low level for a long time. Because of long-term downturn of sugar price, sugar acreage declined by 1.7 percent to 1.87 million hectares in 2013. Looking to 2014/15 crushing season, Brazil, India, Australia and other major producing countries have cut their production forecasts, and global excess of supply and demand is expected to be relieve, while the excess even can turn into shortage in the event of E1 Nino, and international sugar price may get a rebound in the future. As imported sugar is the main reason for the surplus of domestic sugar market at present, domestic sugar price will mostly depend on the global production of sugar in 2014/15 crushing season.

关 键 词：食糖市场 国内外 价差 供需 食糖政策 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济]