水文资料缺乏地区水资源承载能力研究  

Analysis of water resources carrying capacity in hydrological data scarce area

作　　者：秦宇 罗吉忠[2] 魏文杰[3] 姜国珍[4] 张新华[5] 

机构地区：[1]黔南州水利水电勘测设计研究院,贵州黔南州558000 [2]四川省交通运输厅交通勘察设计研究院,四川成都610017 [3]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065 [4]四川大学后勤集团,四川成都610065 [5]四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610065

出　　处：《西南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第5期776-780,共5页Journal of Southwest Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家科技重大水专项(2009ZX07104-001);国家自然科学基金(51379137);贵州省水利科技项目;四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护重点实验室自主项目

摘　　要：如何解决水文资料缺乏问题一直是水资源承载能力研究中的难点和热点.本研究以贵州省都匀市为例,通过构建区域SWAT分布式水文模型模拟该市相关河流长系列径流资料、DPSIR模型选取评价指标和模糊综合评价法的定量计算等一系列手段对都匀市现状及未来的水资源承载能力进行分析和预测.结果表明都匀市近期的一系列水资源开发举措将提高其水资源的承载能力,而中期随着水资源开发利用程度的提高,其承载能力将有所下降,直至远期趋于平衡.承载能力评价结果能够为其可持续发展提供决策支持,保证经济、社会与资源、环境的协调发展.How to solve the problem of hydrological data lack is always a difficult and hot spot in the study of water resources carrying capacity. This study takes Duyun city in Guizhou province as an example, through the series of measures like construction of regional SWAT distributed hydrological model to simulate the long river runoff series information of city, DPSIR model selecting evaluation index, and quantitative calculation of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to analyze and predict the present situation and the future water resources carrying capacity of Duyun city. The results show that the series of recent Duyun city water resources development measures will improve the water resources carrying capacity. Its carrying capacity will fall because of the improvement of the degree of water resources development and utilization in medium term until the forward back into balance. The carrying capacity evaluation results can provide decision support for its sustainable development to guarantee the economic, social and resources, environmentally coordinated development.

关 键 词：水文资料缺乏地区 水资源承载能力 SWAT模型 DPSIR模型 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]