城市天然气管网系统外部威胁脆弱性分析  

Vulnerability analysis of external threats for urban gas pipeline network system

作　　者：尤秋菊[1] 朱伟[1] 白永强[2] 赵堃 

机构地区：[1]北京城市系统工程研究中心,北京100089 [2]北京市劳动保护科学研究所,北京100054 [3]国网冀北电力有限公司,北京100053

出　　处：《油气储运》2014年第9期950-955,共6页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"非常规突发事件应急处置的全过程动态评估模型";91024027;国家科技支撑计划资助项目"安全保障型城市的评价指标体系与评价系统研发";2011BAK07B00-03;北京市财政资助项目"城市地下管线综合安全分析与应急处置技术支撑能力提升";056C;青年骨干项目"城市天然气管网系统脆弱性分析方法研究";201404

摘　　要：为了比较准确地确定天然气管网系统的薄弱环节,从脆弱性的概念出发,结合天然气管网系统的特点,建立了天然气管网系统脆弱性分析理论。基于灾害链理论,深入分析了天然气管网系统脆弱性要素,得出了导致管网系统脆弱性的外部破坏性威胁因素,确定了天然气管网系统的易受害部位。建立了管网系统外部威胁的脆弱性计算模型,采用历史资料与专家咨询的方法,定性分析了外部自然威胁的威胁水平与功能缺失程度;利用马尔可夫潜在影响模型,定量计算了人为破坏管网系统的威胁水平;利用燃气管网水力计算软件,确定了管网系统人为威胁的功能缺失程度。以北京某区域高压天然气管网系统为例,进行了脆弱性分析,确定了脆弱性较强的关键部位。In order to accurately definite identify the weakness of gas pipeline network system accurately, the vulnerability analysis theory thereof is established with starting from the concept of vulnerability, vulnerability analysis theory of gas pipeline system is established and combining with the characteristics of the pipeline system. Based on disaster chain theory, vulnerability factors elements of the system is analyzed deeply, and external destructive threats inducing the vulnerability and the vulnerable parts of the system are identified. Vulnerability calculating model of external threats is established. Using the historical data, together with expert consultation, severity and functional unavailability of external natural threats are analyzed qualitatively. With the Markov potential impact model, severity of human threats is quantified. Moreover, the hydraulic calculation software of gas pipeline network is used to define the functional unavailability of human threats. Taking the regional high pressure gas pipeline network in Beijing as an example, vulnerability analysis is conducted, and its key parts with high vulnerability are determined.

关 键 词：天然气管网 外部破坏性威胁 脆弱性分析 马尔可夫潜在影响模型 功能缺失程度 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]