考虑风、潮联合概率分布的海堤超越频率分析  

Exceeding cumulative probability analysis of seawall considering the joint probability distribution of tide level and wind speed

作　　者：王灶平[1] 刘桂平 龚政[1] 张长宽[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏南京210098 [2]长江水利委员会水文局长江口水文水资源勘测局,上海200136

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2014年第6期18-22,共5页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51379003);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划(2012BAB03B02);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201201045)

摘　　要：基于超越概率理论,选取最优Copula函数建立潮位和风速的联合分布函数,对江苏沿海条子泥匡围工程1989—2008年的实测年最高潮位和年最大风速资料进行分析,发现两者存在较弱的正相关关系;选取GH-Copula函数作为联合分布函数,计算得到风、潮组合的联合概率,进而求解其超越累积概率,发现风潮相关情况下的超越累积概率比风潮相互独立情况下高,认为工程中需考虑其联合概率。Based on a present exceeding probability method, we selected an optimum Copula function to develop a joint probability distribution function of tide level and wind speed. The yearly maximum tide level and wind speed during 1989-2008 of Tiaozini Project in Jiangsu Province are adopted and we found a weak positive correlation between them. To calculate the joint probability, the GH-Copula function is selected as the joint distribution function. Considering the combination of tide level and wind speed, the exceeding cumulative probability is calculated. It is found that the exceeding cumulative probability is higher when the wind and tide are related than that in the case where the wind and tide are independent. Therefore, the joint probability should be considered in the project.

关 键 词：海堤 潮位 风速 超越概率 联合概率分布 条子泥匡围工程 

分 类 号：P753[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]