过去2000年中国气候变化研究的新进展  

State-of-the-arts in the study of climate changes over China for the past 2000 years

作　　者：葛全胜[1] 郑景云[1] 郝志新[1] 张学珍[1] 方修琦[2,1] 王欢[3,1] 闫军辉[4,1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101 [2]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [3]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [4]信阳师范学院城市与环境学院,信阳464000

出　　处：《地理学报》2014年第9期1248-1258,共11页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB950100);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA05080100);科技基础性工作专项项目(2011FY120300)~~

摘　　要：回顾过去2000年中国气候变化的研究历史,总结了本领域在最近10年的新成果,并对未来研究动向进行了展望。主要内容包括:代用证据采集、过去2000年温度序列重建与冷暖期辨识、降水及干湿序列重建与变化特征分析、过去千年气候变化模拟与机制诊断、历史气候变化影响分析等。主要进展体现在:加密了中国气候变化代用资料的空间覆盖度,提升了2000年气候变化序列重建、资料分析和影响辨识等研究的定量化程度,深化了对中国过去2000年气候在年代—百年尺度的变化特征及其形成机制与影响的认识。为进一步揭示地球系统的变化规律,特别是更深入认识中国气候的时空变化规律提供了更好的基础。We reviewed the state-of-the-arts of climate change research in China over the past 2000 years and summarized the achievements during recent 10 years; the research works perspectives of this field were discussed as well. The overview mainly focuses on the development of proxy data, reconstructions of temperature and precipitation （wetness/dryness） changes for the past 2000 years, and recognition on the cold/warm periods, modeling simulation and diagnosis of climate changes for the last millennium, as well as the new findings on impacts of climate change on society coverage of proxy data increased largely and that in historical times. It is found that spatial quantifications of climate proxy indicator interpretation and impacts of climate change on society were improved. The understanding of the decadal to centennial climate change and its possible driving forces and impacts were improved. These achievements provide a solid scientific basis for revealing the rhythms of past changes in earth system, in particular for a better understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change in China and dynamics of regional climate change.

关 键 词：气候变化 中国 过去2000年 进展 展望 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]