海南省手足口病移动百分位数法预警技术研究  

Application of moving percentile method in early alert of infection of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Hainan Province

作　　者：陈少明[1] 邱丽[1] 杜中华[1] 金玉明[1] 

机构地区：[1]海南省疾病预防控制中心,海南海口570203

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2014年第8期929-931,共3页China Tropical Medicine

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金项目(No.813254)

摘　　要：目的 探索移动百分位数法在海南省手足口病预警工作中的应用,为其预防和控制提供依据。方法 收集2009~2011年海南省手足口病各市县每周疫情资料,以移动百分位数法建立预警模型,将P5、P10、P15、P20、…… P85、P90、P95作为侯选的19个预警界值,计算比较其预警2012年手足口病灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值、约登指数及绘制ROC曲线,优选出最佳预警界值。结果 P90为海南省手足口病最佳预警界值,拟合预警信号389条,其预警灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和约登指数分别为92.92％,90.17％,80.98％,96.59％和0.8309,其预警功效最好。结论 移动百分位数法能较好的对海南省手足口病发病情况进行预警。Objective To explore the application of moving percentile method in early alert of infection of hand foot mouth disease in Hainan Province. Methods The weekly data of hand-foot-and-mouth disease from 2009 to 2011 in Hainan Province were collected Moving percentile method was used to establish early alert model. P5, P10, P15, P20, ……P90,P95, were selected as the candidate alert threshold. After calculating and comparing sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, Youden index and ROC, the optimal alert threshold for hand-foot-and-mouth disease were chosen. Results P90 was chosen as the premium alert threshold for early alert of infection of hand-foot-and-mouth disease with 389 warning signals. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and Youden index were 92.92% , 90.17% , 80.98% , 96.59% , 0.8309, respectively. Conclusion Moving percentile could be used for early alert of infection of hand foot mouth disease in Hainan province.

关 键 词：手足口病 移动百分位数法 预警界值 

分 类 号：R512.5[医药卫生—内科学]