征收碳税对我国二氧化碳减排的影响  

Impact of Carbon Tax on Carbon Dioxide Emission in China

作　　者：刘畅 杜伟 庞淑娟[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院,北京100032 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《中国能源》2014年第9期21-26,共6页Energy of China

基　　金：国家科技重大专项项目(编号:2011ZX05043-004)

摘　　要：我国的大气污染问题亟需大力整治,调整以煤为主的能源结构是根本途径,体现环境成本与征收碳税是重要方法之一,且在国外已有成功经验。本文利用联立方程模型,通过假设不同碳税征收的情景,分析碳税对我国原油、天然气及煤炭消费的影响,继而测算对二氧化碳减排的影响。结果表明,征收碳税可对碳减排起到显著的作用,可促使能源结构向清洁化发展,化石能源消费受到抑制,但受影响程度不同,煤炭消费受影响最大,天然气消费受影响最小。在碳税征收上应采取循序渐进的征收方式,避免对经济和行业发展产生较大冲击。Air pollution in China is an urgent problem to be solved.It is a fundamental way for China to adjust the energy structure mainly dominated by coal.Carbon Tax is an important method to reflect environmental cost, and having successful experience abroad.By assuming different circumstances, this paper uses simultaneous equations model to analyze the influence of carbon tax on the consumption of oil, gas and coal, and calculates the impact of carbon dioxide emission mitigation afterwards.The results indicate that carbon tax has significant effects on the emission reduction, and spurs the energy structure to move towards cleanness, and fossil fuels use is restrained.Meanwhile, the impact is different, among which coal is the most influenced and gas is the least.For the issue of tax collection methods, it is recommended to take a gradual way so that economic shocks can be avoided.

关 键 词：碳税 原油 天然气 煤炭 碳排放 能源结构 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F812.42[经济管理—财政学] X196