肃北县戈壁过渡带降水量对气候变化的响应  

Response of Precipitation to Climate Change in Desert Ecotone in Subei County

作　　者：王胜[1,2] 刘洪兰[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]金塔县气象局,甘肃金塔735300 [3]张掖市气象局,甘肃张掖734000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2014年第5期898-904,共7页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：甘肃省气象局“十人计划”资助

摘　　要：采用肃北气象站1973—2010年降水量和相关气候要素的实测资料,利用小波分析等统计方法,分析肃北戈壁过渡带降水量对气候变化的响应。结果表明：1近年来,肃北戈壁过渡带降水量呈显著上升趋势,其中年、春季、秋季和冬季降水量距平趋势系数分别为0.260、0.792、0.507和0.063,夏季降水量趋势系数为-1.396,说明夏季降水量有下降的趋势。2通过对降水量的多时间尺度分析发现,小尺度4--5 a的周期存在于20世纪90年代末期以后的时域中,降水量变化表现为3个偏多期和4个偏少期;大尺度10--19 a、30--35 a的周期震荡非常明显,分别经历了偏少→偏多6个循环和偏多→偏少的交替变化过程。3夏季降水量与气温、日照时数、蒸发量和地表温度均存在着较为显著的响应关系。根据降水量的变化状况,在一定程度上可以反应出其他气象要素的变化规律,它们共同影响着当地的气候变化。气温、日照时数、蒸发量和地表温度随着降水量的变化,均表现出负增长的变化特征,其中蒸发量与降水量的变化关系最为密切,相互的影响也最大,这是因为夏季日照时间长且较强,从而引起了降水量与蒸发量的变化较大。Based on the observed data of precipitation and related meteorological factors at Subei Meteorological Station during the period of 1973 - 2010, in this paper the wavelet analysis was used to analyze the response of pre cipitation to climate change in the desert ecotone in Subei County, Gansu Province. The results are as follows （1） Precipitation was significantly increased in the study period, in which the anomaly trend coefficients of annual, spring, autumn and winter precipitation were 0. 260, 0. 792, 0.507 and 0. 063 respectively, but that of summer precipitation was - 1. 396, which showed that the summer precipitation was in a decrease trend ; （2） The multiple- time and multiple-scale analysis on precipitation revealed that the 4 -5 a small-scale period occurred after the late- 1990s, precipitation was increased in three periods but decreased in four periods; the periodical fluctuation of 10 - 19 a and 30 - 35 a large-scale periods of precipitation was very significant ; （3） There was a significant response re- lationship between precipitation and temperature, sunshine duration, evaporation and surface temperature in sum- mer. The changes of precipitation and other meteorological factors affected jointly the local climate change. The a- nomalies of air temperature, sunshine duration, evaporation and surface temperature became negative with the in- crease of precipitation, and evaporation was closely related to precipitation.

关 键 词：降水量 时间尺度 气候 变化 气象要素 戈壁过渡带 肃北 甘肃 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]