移动通信系统数据业务量预测研究  

Research on data traffic forecast of mobile communication system based on grey GM(1,1) model

作　　者：庞京[1,2] 王坦[2] 李景春[2] 黄标[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学信息工程学院,天津300401 [2]国家无线电监测中心,北京100037

出　　处：《信息技术》2014年第9期37-41,共5页Information Technology

基　　金：国家科技重大专项基金资助项目(2012ZX03006003-004)

摘　　要：运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,以北京市某运营商移动通信网络数据业务量为样本数据,通过模型预测的移动通信业务量的拟合数据与样本数据基本一致,得到的2020年业务量增长倍数在其他各家机构预测倍数范围之内,从而得出将灰色GM(1,1)模型用于移动通信数据业务量增长趋势的预测是合理的。This paper uses the data traffic of Beijing from a mobile communications operators as sample data, and uses the gray prediction model to analyze the data traffic trends of mobile communicationsystems in China within the next few years. The fitting data obtained through the GM（ 1,1 ） model consistent with the sample data, and the forecasted data traffic volume growth multiple is in the range of present results forecasted by other agencies. It＇ s reasonable to forecast the data traffic volume growth of China＇ s telecommunication systems by using the grey GM （ 1,1 ） model.

关 键 词：灰色GM(1 1)模型 移动通信 数据业务量预测 

分 类 号：TN929.5[电子电信—通信与信息系统]