不同供求态势下的货币中性学说——理论有效的历史条件研究  

Neutral Money Theory in Different Supply and Demand Situations: A Study of Historical Conditions of Theoretical Validity

作　　者：陈昭[1] 李韦娴 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学

出　　处：《广东外语外贸大学学报》2014年第4期17-21,共5页Journal of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

摘　　要：总供求态势是宏观经济学理论的上位前提,在历史进程中总供求态势是变化的,而在货币中性学说的既有研究文献中大多缺乏对这一历史条件的分析。本文将从总供求态势这一上位前提出发,从逻辑角度重新论证货币中性学说的有效性。陆军和舒元对中国1978-1997年的货币中性研究,可证实供给约束型经济中货币呈中性。本文通过使用美国1920-2012年的货币数据来构建货币M2与真实GDP的VA R模型,加以F S模型进行长期导数法检验,证实了需求约束型经济中货币非中性,进而表明适度增加货币供给对实际产出有促进作用。The general supply and demand situation is the upper hypothesis of macroeconomic theory, and it is variable in the course of history;however, most of the existing studies in neutral money theory lack historical condition’s analysis. This paper will focus on the upper hypothesis including supply and demand situation, rearguing for the validity of neutral money theory in a logical and empirical way respectively. Lu Jun and Su Yuan testified China’s monetary neutrality in 1978-1997, which proves the validity of neutral money theory in a supply constraint economy. Moreover, this paper will use America’s currency data in 1920-2012 to structure the VAR model of M2 and real GDP and the FS model for LRD testing, showing the invalidity of neutral money theory in a demand constraint economy and the positive but moderate monetary effect on real output.

关 键 词：货币中性 供给约束 需求约束 上位前提假设 长期导数法 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]