湖沼地区钉螺密度与环境关系的广义相加模型研究  

Study of correlations between environment and the density of Oncomelania hupensis in lake regions with generalized additive model

作　　者：洪希成[1,2] 陈曦[3] 徐兴建[1] 魏凤华[1] 朱惠国[1] 邱娟[4] 宇传华[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省疾病预防控制中心,湖北武汉430079 [2]武汉大学公共卫生学院,湖北武汉430072 [3]武汉市中心医院医学资讯科,湖北武汉430000 [4]中国科学院大地测量与地球物理研究所,湖北武汉430077

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2014年第18期3265-3267,3274,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划<控制钉螺扩散新技术研究>(2009BAI78B03);湖北省卫生厅(血防专项)<控制钉螺扩散新技术研究>(XF-2010-6);中国气象局气候变化专项子项目<两湖地区血吸虫病传播气候环境研究>(CCSF201409)

摘　　要：目的探讨湖沼地区钉螺密度与环境因素间的复杂非线性关系。方法 2012年3-5月,通过现场调查的方法收集湖北省嘉鱼县等5个县市的钉螺资料。利用3S技术和现场调查获取螺点的环境因子。应用广义相加模型分析钉螺密度与环境因子的复杂非线性关系。结果坡度对钉螺密度有负相影响(P=0.0328),螺点的上一年上水天数、高程、地表温度与钉螺密度间存在复杂的非线性关系(分别为P<0.0001,P=0.0418,P=0.0022)。上年上水天数为90d,高程为29 m,地表温度为26℃的螺点钉螺密度最高。结论湖沼型地区钉螺密度与环境因素间有复杂的非线性关系,应用广义相加模型能够比较方便地分析它们之间的复杂非线性关系。Objective This study aimed to explore the complex nonlinear correlations between environment factors and the density of Oncomelania hupensis in lake areas. Methods From March to May in 2012, a cross-sectional study about Oncomelania distribution was conducted in 5 counties of Hubei province. The data of Oncomelania density was collected in the survey. The 3S technology and site investigation were used to collect the environmental indexes about the sampling point. A generalized additive model （GAM） was used to analyze the complex nonlinear correlation between environment and the Oncomelania density. Results The gradient of sampling areas has a negative impact on Oncomelania density （P=0.0328）. There were complex nonlinear correlations between Ortcomelania density and environment factors ,which included the watered out days of last year, elevation and surface temperature of sampling areas （P〈0.0001, P=0.0418 and P=0.0022, respectively）. If a sampling area has 90 watered-out days last year, an elevation of 29 meters and the surface temperature of 26 Celsius degrees, it would have the highest Oncomelania density in the area. Conclusion Complex nonlinear eorrelationships exist between environment and Ortcomelania density in lake regions, and GAM is convenient for use to find these correlations.

关 键 词：钉螺 环境因子 广义相加模型 湖沼地区 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]