基于代表性滑动面的边坡系统可靠度分析  

Slope system reliability analysis based on representative slip surfaces

作　　者：褚雪松[1] 王旭春[1] 张勇强[2] 李亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学土木工程学院,山东青岛266033 [2]北京市市政工程设计研究总院,北京100082

出　　处：《煤炭学报》2014年第6期1077-1083,共7页Journal of China Coal Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51274126);大连理工大学海岸与近海工程国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(LP12014);2013年国家安全生产重大事故防治关键技术科技项目(2013-SD-39)

摘　　要：边坡可能沿很多个滑动面发生滑动,因此边坡稳定可靠度分析实质上是一个系统可靠度问题。在分析滑动面安全系数相关性的基础上,提出了代表性滑动面筛选的策略,利用蒙特卡罗法产生样本值对每个样本值,仅计算代表性滑动面而非所有可行滑动面的安全系数,选择最小的安全系数作为此样本值的抽样结果,提出了基于代表性滑动面的边坡系统可靠度分析方法。通过2个算例分析,研究了滑动面筛选时相关系数阈值ρ0对计算结果的影响,通过与常规蒙特卡罗法及已有结果的比较,证明了本文方法的有效性及高效性。Slope reliability of stability problem is in essence a system problem,where slope may fail along any individual slip surface. Based on the analysis of the correlation between factors of safety of different slip surfaces,an approach to identify representative slip surfaces was proposed. Sets of random samples were generated by Monte Carlo simulation,and the output corresponding to each set of random samples was selected as the minimum factor of safety among those of representative slip surfaces instead of total potential slip surfaces. The proposed methodology of slope system reliability method based on representative slip surface was applied to two excerpted examples and the effects of values of threshold correlation coefficient ρ0were studied. The effectiveness and efficiency of the methodology were validated against results from different methods.

关 键 词：土坡稳定 代表性滑动面 系统可靠度分析 极限平衡法 破坏概率 蒙特卡罗法 

分 类 号：TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程]