人民币分行业实际有效汇率及其对我国各行业出口量的影响  

Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates of RMB and It's Impact on Each Industry's Export Volume of China

作　　者：邹宏元[1] 罗大为[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学金融学院 [2]中国人民银行成都分行

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2014年第11期37-52,共16页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(JBK1307010)的资助

摘　　要：根据海关协调制度(HS)的行业分类标准,本文编制了我国8个最主要的工业制品行业的实际有效汇率指数,并通过模拟仿真实验分析了各行业实际有效汇率的影响因素。结果表明,在样本期内,各行业实际有效汇率的水平值和变化幅度均有明显的差异。名义有效汇率、国内和国外价格水平等因素对实际有效汇率的影响程度在不同行业存在差异。基于SVAR模型,本文考查了我国主要工业制品行业的出口量与分行业实际有效汇率各组成因素之间的动态关系。脉冲响应结果显示,由于出口产品结构以及在国际市场上竞争力等方面的差异,各行业的出口量对同一种类变量的冲击往往表现出不同的脉冲响应特征。According to the Harmonized System, we calculate the industry-spe- cific real effective exchange rate （REER） for China＇s 8 most important industries, and then analyze the effect of various factors on industry-specific REER by conducting a simulation analysis. The results show that, there are apparent differences in levels and amplitudes of variation among the REERs of different industries. The factors of the industry-specific REERs, such as nominal effective exchange rate, domestic and foreign price level, exhibit different impact on REER in different industries. Base on SVAR model, we analyze the dynamic relationships among each industry＇s export volume and the factors of which the industry-specific REERs are composed. The impulse response results show that, because of the discrepancies in export structure and international competitiveness, the export volume of different industry exhibit different response to the same sort of economic impulse.

关 键 词：分行业实际有效汇率 模拟仿真 SVAR模型 出口量 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]