全球视角的通货膨胀预期管理:历史经验与现实启示  

The Global Dimension of Management of Inflation Expectation:Historical Lessons and Implication for Reality

作　　者：马文涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2014年第11期86-102,共17页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"中国通胀预期形成的形成;测度与管理研究"(71203175);西安交通大学新教师科研支持计划"兼顾通胀预期稳定与金融稳定的‘新'宏观审慎管理框架构建"(08142006);博士后基金面上项目(2012M521751)的资助

摘　　要：本文在从全球视角回顾通货膨胀预期管理的历史经验的基础上,提炼出成功通货膨胀预期管理的基本要素,即以价格稳定为核心的政策框架、积极的反通货膨胀立场、明确的名义锚、有效沟通、灵活的汇率制度、对反通胀与稳增长的有效平衡和对金融不稳定的兼顾。通过上述要素的有效组合,提高政策可信度是通胀预期管理的核心所在。据此,我国应加快金融改革,提高货币政策调控的自主性,并逐步建立以价格稳定和政府债务稳定为核心的货币财政政策的搭配方式,丰富中央银行的沟通手段,引导并塑造公众形成稳定的通胀预期。This thesis summarizes the basic elements of the successful managemem of inflation expectation by the review of the global dimension of historical lessons which in- cludes the monetary policy framework with the core of price stability, active stance of anti- inflation, clear nominal anchor, effective communication, flexible exchange rate arrangements, the effective balance between anti-inflation and stability of economic growth and consideration of financial instability. Through effective combination of these basic elements of management of inflation expectation, improving the credibility of monetary policy is the core of management of inflation expectation. So, our government should enhance the process of financial reform, improve the autonomy of monetary policy, gradually establish the framework of the way of the collocation of monetary and fiscal policy with the core of price stability and the stability of government debt, and enrich the means of central bank＇s communication to guide and shape the inflation expectation of the public and make it be stable.

关 键 词：预期管理 名义锚 反通胀 历史经验 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]