财政支农、经济波动与农村居民消费  

Fiscal Expenditure on Agriculture,Economic Fluctuations and Consumption of Rural Residents

作　　者：成谢军[1,2] 张伟[3] 江可申[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]江苏第二师范学院,江苏南京210013 [3]南京师范大学中北学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2014年第6期10-20,共11页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"考虑目标差异的政府R&D资助对企业技术创新的影响研究"(批准号:G0307);江苏省社会科学基金项目"江苏金融集聚区建设研究"(批准号:13EYB006)的资助

摘　　要：在消费者效用最大化的框架基础上,构建财政对农支出、经济波动与农村居民消费的动态最优化模型。理论分析表明,财政对农支出能够促进农村居民消费,经济波动会抑制农村居民消费。通过运用中国1985—2011年的相关数据,在使用多个工具变量消除内生性后,利用2SLS和GMM方法对理论分析的结论进行实证检验。结果发现,财政对农支出确实对农村居民消费有显著的正向作用,经济波动则对农村居民消费有显著的负向作用。实证结果还表明,滞后二期的农村居民消费对当期消费有抑制作用,滞后一期则具有促进作用,这说明农村居民消费具有一定时期内的计划性和"棘轮效应"。In constructing a dynamical optimization model under the framework of consumer utility animation that considers the impact from governmental funding on agriculture, economic volatility and agricultural resident compensation. Theoretical analysis support that governmental funding to agricultural industry can promote the consumption of agricultural residents, but it can be weakened by economic volatility. Using a sample that consisting relevant data spanning from 1985 to 2011, we conduct the empirical tests using 2SLS and GMM after controlling endogenous issues that confirms the theoretical prediction. In addition, we find that residential consumption of agricultural area that is lagged for two periods can restrict the current consumption, but the result is turned over when the lag is changed into one period. This can be explained by a scheduling feature of their consumption.

关 键 词：财政对农支出 经济波动 农村居民消费 工具变量 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]