财政支农对农村居民消费的效应分析  

A SVAR Analysis in the Effect of Rural Fiscal Expenditure on Rural Consumption

作　　者：杨琦[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2014年第11期120-129,共10页Finance & Economics

基　　金：重庆工商大学博士科研启动基金项目(编号:1701-670100745)阶段性成果;国家社科基金项目(批准号:13XJY023)的资助

摘　　要：本文利用方法对财政支农不同部分对农村居民消费的影响进行了考察。结果表明:1生产性的支出对农村居民消费产生了"挤入效应",而非生产性支出对农村居民消费产生了"挤出效应";生产性支出对农民消费的冲击为正,非生产性支出对农民消费冲击主要为负。从冲击的贡献来看,前者的贡献率大于后者。2从短期来看,农村居民消费支出与生产性支农支出构成了双向的Granger原因;非生产性支农支出成为农村居民消费的Granger原因,而农村居民消费不能成为非生产性支农支出的Granger原因。对模型施加短期约束条件,生产性支农支出对农民消费有一个正的较大的同期效应。This paper uses SVAR methods investigated agriculture consumption of rural residents on different parts of the fmancial support for agriculture. The results showed that： （ I ） In the long- term, the produc- tive expenditure for rural residents had a ＂crowds in effect＂, while non - productive expenditure on consump- tion of rural residents had a ＂crowds out effect＂; production expenditure impact on rural consumption is posi- five, non-production impact on rural consumption expenditure is mainly negative. From the view of shock contribution, the former bigger than the latter. （ 1I ） In the short term, rural consumption expenditure and productive expenditure constituted a two- way granger reasons; non- productive expendiUrre became the granger reason of rural consumption, and rural consumption can not become non- productive expenditure granger reason. Imposed a short- term constraints to SVAR model, productive expenditure has a greater posi- tive effect over on rural consumption in the same period, while non- productive expenditure has little effect on rural rural consumofion. Finally, oolicv recommendafions.

关 键 词：财政支农 农村居民消费 模型 

分 类 号：F812.8[经济管理—财政学]