基于险度函数的装备供应链库存风险损失度量  

Inventory risk loss measurement of equipment supply chain based on risk measurement function

作　　者：李赛[1] 许爱强[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院科研部,山东烟台264001

出　　处：《海军工程大学学报》2014年第5期107-112,共6页Journal of Naval University of Engineering

摘　　要：目前,对供应链库存风险损失的定量研究比较少,而定量研究中鲜有对风险偏好变化问题的研究,因此首先分析了各种风险度量方法,通过比较采用了险度函数作为对装备供应链风险损失的度量方法;然后,结合装备供应链实际,提出了定常风险偏好特性险度函数和可变风险偏好特性险度函数的适用范围,以及装备供应链库存风险损失度量的损失水平值,并给出了装备供应链库存风险损失度量函数;最后,通过算例进行了验证。实验结果表明:行为人的不同风险偏好特性会对同一事态产生不同的预判,进而可能影响对风险的决策,这是符合客观现实的。At present, the quantitative study of supply chain for inventory risk loss is less, and few of quantitative research studies of risk preference change, therefore firstly some risk measurement methods are analyzed and the risk measurement function is adopted for the inventory risk loss measurement of equipment supply chain by comparison. Then, according to the risk measurement function with constant risk preference and the risk measurement function with diverse risk preference, the value of inventory risk loss measurement is proposed in combination with the actual equipment supply chain. Finally, the function of inventory risk loss measurement of equipment supply chain is presented and validated with a calculating example. The experimental results show that the different risk preference characteristics of human behavior will lead to different prejudgements of the same events thus to affect the decision-making of risk, which is true for objective reality. The study will provide a more suitable quantitative risk assessment reference for different decision makers.

关 键 词：装备保障 险度函数 装备供应链 库存 风险损失度量 

分 类 号：E23[军事—军事理论]