气候突变、人口增长、地理限制与夏朝的建立  

作　　者：吴文祥[1] 葛全胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理资源与环境研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《中原文物》2014年第5期33-39,81,共8页Cultural Relics of Central China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金课题(41172154);全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(2010CB950103)课题资助

摘　　要：以夏朝建立为标志的中国古代文明诞生是中国史前人类社会演进史上一个里程碑,其产生原因一直是国内外学术界关注的焦点。研究者提出了大量的理论来解释文明社会起源的动因,然而到目前为止,还没有一种假说能够给出令人满意的解释。本文评述了文明起源最为流行的限制理论的成功与不足,复原了夏朝建立前后的气候变化,发现夏朝的建立恰好对应于4.2-4.0ka BP全球降温事件。本文依据文明起源的战争理论,但认为人口增长本身不是触发人口-资源失衡进而引发战争的一个独立变量,引入气候突变作为独立变量,认为人口增长、气候突变、人口迁徙和地理限制等因素共同作用导致人口-资源失衡,引起人群之间的战争是夏朝建立的主要原因。该理论可以很好地解释中国第一个王朝为何诞生于中原地区而不是其他地区,为何诞生于4.0ka BP前后而不是其他时间。The establishment of the Xia Dynasty which marked the formation of ancient Chinese civilization is generally acknowledged as a milestone in the societal evolution. Warfare is commonly agreed as a main driving force in the state formation. However, no widely accepted model has ever emerged on the mechanism of warfare. In this paper, we reviewed the circumscription theory and discussed its weakness in explanation of state formation. Based on reconstruction of 4.0kaBP climatic event and the fact that population pressure could not act as an interdependent variable generating population- resource imbalance, we developed alternative model for the emergence of Xia Dynasty. Our model invoked abrupt climate change as an independent variable, while considering the effects of population growth and environmental circumscription. The model can be summarized as： in a circumscribed environment, abrupt climate change acts on certain degree of population density level, resulting in population-resource imbalance and migrations, which further triggers outbreaks of warfare eventually leading to the establishment of Xia Dynasty in China. Our hypothesis has the advantages over other models in interpretation of why the emergence of Xia Dynasty occurred in Central China rather than other regions in China, and why it happened around 4.0kaBP rather than other time period.

关 键 词：夏朝 气候突变 人口增长 限制理论 人口-资源失衡 

分 类 号：K222[历史地理—历史学]