中国医疗保险制度隐形债务测算研究——基于西部B市城镇职工基本医疗保险制度的分析  

Measurement Study on Implicit Debt of Medical Insurance System in China:Based on Analysis of the B City

作　　者：刘锦林[1] 吴静娴[1] 毛瑛[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2014年第10期31-40,共10页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：教育部纵向人文社会科学基金项目<老龄化背景下西北地区城镇职工基本医疗保险基金收支趋势与隐性债务研究>(09YJAZH071)

摘　　要：基于医保精算理论,构建医疗保险制度隐性债务的测算模型,并结合西部B市城镇职工基本医疗保险制度进行实证测算。研究表明西部B市城镇职工基本医保的隐性债务规模总体呈现先上升后下降的"倒U型"发展趋势,最终在2080年左右趋于消失。另外医疗费用补偿的增长系数、在职职工工资增长率、无风险利率和养老金增长率对隐性债务的规模具有显著的影响。最后结合测算结果和研究结论,从医保制度完善、开源路径和节流路径三方面提出化解隐性债务规模的政策建议框架。Based on the medical insurance actuarial theory, we construct the model on implicit debt of medical insurance system, and make measurement combined with the actual operation data of B city. The results show that the overall scale of implicit debt presents the development trend of ＂the upside down of U＂, and it falls after rises firstly, and then will disappear in 2080 finally. In addition, there are 4 factors which have significant impact on implicit debt scale which are the growth coefficient of health care costs compensation, the growth rate of on-the-job worker＇s wages, the risk--free interest rate and the growth rate of pension. At last, we put forward a framework of policy advices to dissolve the implicit debt scale from 3 aspects which includes consummation health care system, open source path and throttling path.

关 键 词：医疗保险制度 隐性债务 模型构建与应用 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：F840.684[经济管理—保险]