上海市浦东新区城市街道“两抢一盗”犯罪的时空规律  

Spatio-Temporal Pattern of Street Property Offences:A Case Study of Pudong District, Shanghai

作　　者：曾敏玲[1] 毛媛媛[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学珠海分校不动产学院,广东珠海519087 [2]苏州大学建筑与规划系,江苏苏州215123 [3]复旦大学公共管理与公共政策国家哲学社会科学创新基地,上海200433

出　　处：《热带地理》2014年第5期606-617,共12页Tropical Geography

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究专项任务项目(12JDSZ2041);国家自然科学基金项目(51208115)

摘　　要：以上海市浦东新区"两抢一盗"犯罪为研究对象,采用空间分析和统计分析的方法,分析其时空分布规律,并剖析街道环境与犯罪分布之间的关系。研究发现:1)犯罪时间分布与人们生活、工作的作息周期相关,街道空间使用频率高的时段犯罪相对高发;犯罪的昼夜分布差别与地区岗位、商业场所等环境的空间分布有关;2)在案发部位分布上,各部位的案件构成受到人流活动强度、自然监视的力度及逃逸便捷程度的影响;3)在宏观地理分布上,盗窃案件在浦东新区内以陆家嘴中央商务区一带为核心呈自西向东圈层递减分布,而"两抢"案件的高发区呈带状和点状分布的格局,较为分散在市区与镇区的各居民集中区附近;4)回归分析表明,交叉口是影响盗窃和"两抢"案件分布的重要环境要素之一,交叉口数量及密度均分别对"两抢"和盗窃量有正向影响。最后以研究结论为依据,提出相应的犯罪防控措施。In order to provide the basis and measures for Pudong street crime prevention and control, this paper tries to find out：1） the spatio-temporal patterns of street property crimes including theft, robbery and snatch;2） the relationship between urban environmental factors and distribution of those crimes in Pudong District of Shanghai. In the paper statistics and spatial analysis are used. The results show that：1） the temporal distribution of street property crimes is closely related to people’s life and work cycle. The higher the frequency of street usage is, the more the street property crimes would be. The distribution of those crimes in the day and the night changes with the distribution of local employment, commercial place, etc. 2） The variation of crime positions is influenced by the intensity of people’s activity, the capability of natural surveillance and the convenience of escape. 3） In Pudong, high-incidence of theft cases occurs around Lujiazui commercial area and decreases from west to east, while the hotspots of robbery and snatch scatter around urban and town settlements. 4） The regression analysis shows that crossing road is one of the most important factors for street property crimes. Numbers and density of the crossing roads both have positive influence on street propery crimes. Some advices are proposed in this paper for crime prevention and control, such as strengthening the police patrol, improving environment design, and increasing the closed-circuit television monitoring, etc.

关 键 词：城市街道 “两抢一盗” 犯罪 时空分布 上海浦东 

分 类 号：D917[政治法律—法学]