电网重要基础设施自然灾害脆弱性评价研究  

Natural Disaster Vulnerability Assessment of Important Grid Infrastructure

作　　者：门永生[1,2] 朱朝阳[1] 于振[1] 吴睦远[3] 何真珍[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192 [2]北京科技大学,北京100083 [3]国网上海市电力公司,上海200122

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第4期16-19,88,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(JYYBGKJ[2013]133)

摘　　要：电网重要基础设施对自然灾害表现出较为显著的脆弱性。针对典型自然灾害对电网重要设施影响的特征,构建了基于8类典型自然灾害的电网重要基础设施脆弱性评价指标体系,包括静态和动态3级共40个指标。针对静态指标提出了对电网重要基础设施进行评价的指数评价方法,确定各指数的取值范围,划分评价等级标准,给出了评价流程及综合指数的计算规则。实例分析表明某电网重要基础设施——枢纽变电站自然灾害脆弱性综合指数为155,脆弱性等级为中等,其中雷击脆弱性指数最高为72。基于该评价方法不仅可用于同类电网重要基础设施自然灾害脆弱性对比排序,并且还可通过评价找出电网重要基础设施的脆弱性环节,从而采取有针对性预防措施,切实提高电网重要基础设施的防灾减灾水平,保障电网系统安全稳定运行。Important grid infrastructures exhibit significant vulnerability in case of natural disasters.Accord-ing to the characteristics of impact of typical natural disasters on the important grid facilities,a vulnerability evalua-tion index system,including 3 levels of static and dynamic and as a total of 40 index,is built for important grid in-frastructure based on 8 kinds of typical natural disasters.Based on the static index,the index evaluation method is proposed,the value range of each index is determined,the evaluation grade standards are determined,and the e-valuation process and calculation rules of the composite index are given.It is shown in example analysis that the natural disaster vulnerability index of a hub substation,an important infrastructure of a grid,is 155,of medium vulnerability grade,and the lightning vulnerability index is the highest as 72.The evaluation method not only can be used in comparative sequencing of natural disaster vulnerability of similar important grid infrastructures,and can also be find out the weak links of the infrastructures through the evaluation,therefore targeted preventive measures could be taken accordingly to improve the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation and guarantee safe operation of the grid system.

关 键 词：电网 重要基础设施 自然灾害 脆弱性 指数评价 

分 类 号：X921[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X43