基于GFS降水预报信息的洪水预报方法研究  

Study on flood forecasting method based on GFS precipitation forecasting information

作　　者：余豪 袁晶瑄 卢迪 王本德 

机构地区：[1]连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]中国电建集团中南勘测设计研究院有限公司,长沙410014

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2014年第5期13-19,共7页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109025);中国国电集团科学技术项目(2010)

摘　　要：本文以桓仁流域为研究背景,进行延长洪水预报预见期的研究。首先基于流域历史雨洪资料,运用数据挖掘的方法挖掘出一套选择单位线的规则,改进了原洪水汇流预报方案;应用统计学方法,对GFS降水数值预报信息进行频率修正释用,提高了GFS降水数值预报信息的精度。然后利用释用后的GFS降水数值预报信息与洪水预报方案耦合,使桓仁流域洪水预报预见期延长了30-72小时。This paper describes a study on the method of prolonging period of flood forecasting based on the data of Huanren river. First, a set of rules were mined in this study to choose unit hydrographs with methods of data excavation and historical hydrology information. These rules can improve the accuracies of flood forecasting results and forecasting models. Then, GFS precipitation numerical forecasting information was modified with statistical methods. Last, the period of flood forecasting was prolonged up to 30-72 hours by combining the interpreted GFS information with a flood forecasting model.

关 键 词：水文学 防洪工程 延长洪水预报预见期 数值预报产品释用 选择单位线的规则 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]