陕西省经济增长与环境污染的关系研究——基于时间序列数据的实证分析  

The Research on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Shaanxi Province——The Empirical Analysis Based on the Time Series Data

作　　者：杜方泽 惠宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《未来与发展》2014年第10期76-82,93,共8页Future and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究规划基金"产业集聚的技术溢出效应研究-以国家高新技术产业开发区为例"(11XJA790004);陕西省社科基金重点项目"地方政府招商引资对陕西企业创新的影响研究"(13D037);陕西省自然科学基金"环境规制与资源型产业发展研究"(2012JM9002)

摘　　要：本文基于陕西省1991-2010年的时间序列数据,运用EVIEWS软件对陕西省环境污染与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明,人均实际GDP与工业废气排放量之间呈"U型"右侧曲线关系;人均实际GDP与工业烟尘排放量呈单调递减关系;人均实际GDP与二氧化硫排放量呈"倒N型"曲线关系。最终根据拟合曲线预测环境污染趋势,并提出相关政策建议。This research is based on the time series data of Shaanxi province from 1991 to 2010, using EVIEWS to empirically analyze the relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth in Shaanxi province. The analysis results show that the relationship between the real GDP per capita and industrial waste gas emissions appears to be the right side of the ＂U-type＂ curve. The relationship between the real GDP per capita and industrial soot emissions is monotonically decreasing. And the relationship between the real GDP per capita and sulfur dioxide emissions appears to be the ＂inverted N-type＂ curve. Finally based on the fitting curve to predict the tendency of the environmental pollution and put forward the relevant policy suggestions.

关 键 词：经济增长 环境污染 环境库兹涅茨曲线 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]