二维能量平衡模式对若干气候问题的研究  

Two-dimensional energy balance model and its application to some climatic issues

作　　者：李耀锟[1] 巢纪平[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京100875 [2]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象学报》2014年第5期880-891,共12页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究计划(973项目)项目(2014CB953903);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2013YB45)

摘　　要：回顾并分析讨论了二维能量平衡模式在冰界纬度和太阳常数的关系、荒漠化的演变及二氧化碳温室效应等一系列气候问题中的应用。同一个太阳常数最多可以对应3个平衡态,一个对应着目前的气候状态,一个对应着冰期气候,另一个对应着几乎全球冰封的气候,平衡态的数目及其稳定性与反照率的分布关系密切,反照率不连续性越大,平衡态的数目越多。荒漠带会随着荒漠反照率的增大分别向南、向北扩张,恶化荒漠植被交界地区的生态环境,危及人类的生产生活,荒漠化对中低纬度(高纬度)的温度变化影响较弱(显著)。二氧化碳浓度升高并不会使极冰迅速消融,全球平均温度缓慢升高,冰界纬度缓慢向北退却,时常会出现"停滞"现象。Based on a two-dimensional energy balance model,the studies on some climatic issues such as the relationship between ice cap latitude and solar constant,desertification,and the warming effect of carbon dioxide,have been reviewed and discussed.The phenomenon that a fixed solar constant might correspond to different equilibrium ice cap latitudes is determined by the continuity of albedo distribution.The discontinuity in albedo distribution increases the number of equilibrium ice cap latitude.Desert would expand both northward and southward when desert surface albedo is increasing.This would deteriorate the ecological environment in border regions,and then threaten the existence of local inhabitants.Polar ice would not accelerate melting with increasing carbon dioxide concentration.The ice cap latitude would move northward slowly,with some “hiatus” periods,under the slowly increasing global average surface temperature.According to the current research- future development of the two-dimensional energy balance model and possible progress are also forecasted.

关 键 词：二维能量平衡模式 多平衡态 冰期 荒漠化 二氧化碳温室效应 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]