基于节能减排的能源保障绿色风险分析  

Analysis on Energy Security Green Risk Based on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction

作　　者：崔巍[1] 萧锦华[1] 杨海峰 杨万清 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁省大连市116026 [2]重庆电力公司发展策划部,重庆市400041 [3]大连供电公司,辽宁省大连市116001

出　　处：《电力建设》2014年第10期100-105,共6页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71072124)

摘　　要：随着能源需求的不断增长,能源保障体系的管理不当使得城市环境污染越加严重,特别是以火电为主的传统电力生产结构,其煤炭的消耗造成了大气环境的巨大压力。如今,节能减排已经成为了全国民生关注的焦点,如何缓解能源与环境的矛盾更是全球共同努力解决的问题。为此,以国家"十二五"规划的节能减排思想为核心,提出了能源保障绿色风险的新概念,以便通过风险预警的作用为能源部门的决策提供一定的科学依据,从而在环境损失发生前能够采取规避措施。以大连市为例,通过分析大连能流图识别出能源保障绿色风险因子,并利用层次分析法和基准调整的数据处理方法形成风险量化模型,进一步对其进行量化与排序,得到风险事件处理的优先级顺序。结果表明,绿色能源供应水平和可吸入颗粒物浓度对大连市能源保障绿色风险的影响程度最大。大连市应以此为重点,在国家大战略的指导下加快发展核电和天然气,以达到节能减排的最终目的。With the growing demand for energy, the improper management on energy security system makes the city environmental pollution become more serious, especially for the traditional grid structure dominated by thermal power, whose coal consumption causes tremendous pressure on atmospheric environment. Nowadays, energy conservation and emission reduction have become the focus of people＇s livelihood in the whole country, and further it is global effort to solve the problem how to alleviate the contradiction between energy and environment. Therefore, this paper presented a new concept of energy security green risk with energy conservation and emission reduction in the national ＂Twelfth Five Year Plan＂ as the core ideology, which could provide scientific decision basis for energy department according to the risk forewarning, in order to take measures to avoid environment loss. Taking Dalian as an example, this paper identified energy security green risk factors by analyzing Dalian energy flow chart, and then used analytic hierarchy process and data processing method of baseline value adjustment to establish the risk quantification model. Furthermore, it took quantization and sorting on green risks to obtain the handling priority order of green risk events. The result shows that the green energy supply level and the inspirable particle concentration have greatest impact on energy security green risk. With these two points as the key, it should accelerate the development of nuclear power and natural gas under the national grand strategy＇s guidance in Dalian, to achieve the final purpose of energy conservation and emission reduction.

关 键 词：节能减排 能源保障 绿色风险 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TM611[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]