区域能源消费特征的面板数据分析  

Panel Data Analysis of Regional Energy Consumption Characteristics

作　　者：崔巍[1] 江鹤 杨万清 杨海峰 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁省大连市116026 [2]大连市供电公司,辽宁省大连市116001 [3]重庆电力公司发展策划部,重庆市400041

出　　处：《电力建设》2014年第10期106-109,共4页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71072124);大连市能源消费综合预测与节能对策研究(2013D13ZC194)

摘　　要：为了找到某种途径控制能源消费量,降低能源消费强度,达到降耗和减排的目的,以大连市能源消费为例分析了区域能源消费特征。选取大连市工业统计年鉴中比较突出的11个产业,以这11个产业的生产总值与电力、天然气、原煤、原油的消费量构建面板数据模型,实证分析大连市不同产业对于不同品种能源的消费特征。面板数据分析的结果表明:这11个产业的发展对电力的消费都起着促进作用,并且大连市支柱产业的电力消费水平都比较高;黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、交通运输设备制造业、电气机械和器材制造业、通用设备制造业对天然气消费影响大;电力和热力生产供应业、非金属矿物制品业、石油化学加工业对原煤和原油消费影响大。通过分析发现,不同产业的发展对不同能源品种消费影响不同,产业结构的调整促进了能源消费结构的改变。To find a way to control energy consumption, reduce energy consumption intensity, save energy and reduce emission, this paper analyzed the characteristics of energy consumption in Dalian. The paper selected 11 industries those were more prominent industry in Dalian statistical yearbook. Then a panel data model was built based on the 11 industries＇ total output value, energy consumptions of power, natural gas, coal and oil, and an empirical analysis was carried out on the consumptive characteristics of different industries in Dalian industrial sector on different kind of energy. The results of panel data analysis show that the development of the 11 industries plays a role in promoting electricity consumption, and the electricity consumption levels in Dalian pillar industries are relatively high. The smelting and rolling of ferrous metal processing industry, transportation equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and general equipment manufacturing industry all have great effects on natural gas consumption; the electricity and heat production and supply industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, petroleum and chemical industry all have great effects on coal and oil consumption. The analysis results also show that the influences of different industries on different kinds of energy are different; the adjustment of industrial structure can promote the structure change of energy consumption.

关 键 词：能源消费 产业结构 清洁能源 面板数据 

分 类 号：TM611[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]