改进的风险矩阵法在电力系统结构与电力设备设施综合风险评价中的应用  

Application of Improved Risk Matrix in Integrated Risk Assessment of Electric Power Systems' Structure and Equipment and Facilities

作　　者：郑卫东[1] 喻小宝 谭忠富[2] 王抒祥[1] 邓创[3] 徐厚东[1] 王圣伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]四川省电力公司,四川成都610041 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [3]国网四川省电力公司电力应急中心,四川成都610041

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2014年第10期189-193,共5页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：针对传统风险矩阵法等级划分不精细和烈度与概率异质性的缺陷,引入模糊逻辑,构建了模糊风险矩阵图,提出灵敏度分析理论。将改进的风险矩阵法与层次分析法相结合确定不同风险的权重,计算出综合风险值,对应综合风险等级标准即可提出相应措施,并以四川省电力系统为例,探讨了该方法在电力系统风险评估中的应用。结果表明,改进的风险矩阵法有效解决了风险结问题,提高了模型的精确度。For the defects of the traditional risk matrix that grading is not fine and the heterogeneity of intensity and probability, the article introduces fuzzy logic to construct fuzzy risk matrix and proposes sensitivity analysis theory. Combination of analytic hierarchy process and risk matrix optimization model is used to determine the weight of the different risk weights and calculate integrated risk values. According to integrated risk rating standards, appropriate measures are put forward. Taking Sichuan power systems for an example, it discusses the application of model in power system risk assessment. The results show that the improved risk matrix method effectively solves the risk of colorectal problems and improve the accuracv of the model_

关 键 词：风险矩阵 电力系统 风险结 层次分析法 风险评估 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]