气候变化背景下海河流域干旱特征及趋势  

Trend and Drying Characteristics of Haihe River Basin Under the Background of Climate Change

作　　者：于磊[1,2] 杨井泉[1] 徐丽梅[2] 胡广鑫[2] 胡红[2] 张涛[1] 高明杰[2] 李子轩[1] 

机构地区：[1]水利部海河水利委员会,天津300170 [2]天津市龙网科技发展有限公司,天津300181

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（地球科学版）》2014年第5期1615-1624,共10页Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science Edition

基　　金：海河流域干旱区划与旱灾风险评估项目(CP2011-04);水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201301068)

摘　　要：为了深入研究近60年来多种气候、水文要素对海河流域干旱变化的影响,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法对流域内气温、降水、径流等要素进行了分析,并采用Z指数法对流域的干旱特征进行了研究。结果表明:20世纪50年代以来,海河流域经历了湿润—正常—干旱的变化过程;21世纪初,流域北部地区出现偏旱现象,多次干旱的面积覆盖率低于40%,少部分干旱覆盖率较高,最高达98%;从时间上看,1980年是发生干旱现象的一个临界点,无论是从发生次数还是覆盖面积上,1980年以后要明显大于1980年以前。从干旱发生频率上分析,海河流域发生轻度和一般干旱的高频地区多分布在滦河流域以及北部山区,中部平原地区干旱爆发频率相对较低,重大干旱事件则在中南部平原地区发生频率更高。综合全部干旱事件,滦河流域为干旱频发区,其次为海河流域东部地区,西部地区则频率相对较低。In order to further study the influence of various climate changes and hydrological factor on arid changes in Haihe River basin,we analyze temperature,precipitation and runoff of Haihe River basin by Mann-Kendall nonparametric tests.We also analyze the drying characteristics by the method of Z index.The results show that the drought of Haihe River basin has changed from wet to normal to dry since the 1950 s.At the beginning of the 21 st century,the northern basin became a little drought.Mostly,the area coverage is lower than 40%,but there were also some drought that covered more than98%of the area.From the time,the 1980 was a watershed in droughts occurrence.In terms of both thefrequency and on the average coverage,it was more dry after 1980 than before.From the drought occurrence frequency,mild and general drought of Haihe River basin in high frequency distributed in the Luanhe River basin as well as the northern mountains,and in central plains region the drought frequency is relatively low.Major drought event occurred more frequently in central and southern plains region.Overall,the drought occour frequence in Luanhe River basin is the highest,and the eastern region of Haihe River basin is much lower,and the western region is relatively low frequency.

关 键 词：气候变化 干旱 Mann-Kendall非参数检验法 Z指数法 海河流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]