美国施压人民币汇率的政治逻辑  

The Political Logic of U.S. Pressure on Renminbi Exchange Rate

作　　者：李俊久[1,2] 姜默竹[3] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学中日经济共同研究中心 [2]吉林大学经济学院 [3]吉林大学东北亚研究院

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2014年第6期13-25,125,共13页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(10ZD&054);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(12YJCGJW005);吉林大学哲学社会科学创新团队建设项目(2012FRTD02)

摘　　要：进入新世纪以来,汇率保护主义成为美国对华保护主义的新内容和表现形式。从表面看,该现象源于美国对人民币汇率被严重低估和操纵的指控。但这些指控既无科学依据又缺乏数据支撑。本文认为,利益集团政治是美国施压人民币汇率的重要微观机制,国际货币权力则是重要的宏观机制。中国需采取如下政策以化解美国压力:分化美国保护性经济利益集团,并尽可能争取美国反保护经济利益集团的支持;增强在美中生产、金融、贸易和知识结构中的自主性;密切同美国政府的磋商、协调与合作。When entering into the new century,exchange rate protectionism has become the new content and form of U.S. protection against China.It seemingly originates from America's accusations of Renminbi's serious undervaluation and'China's exchange rate manipulation'. However,such accusations not only have no scientific foundations,but also lack the support from empirical data. This essay argues that interest group politics is important micro mechanism in U.S. pressure on Renminbi exchange rate,while international monetary power is key macro mechanism. To relieve the pressure from U.S.,China needs to take efforts in three aspects:First,divide U.S. protectionist economic interest groups and attain supports from U.S. anti-protectionist economic interest groups as much as possible. Second,strengthen its autonomy in U.S.-Sino production structure,financial structure,trade structure,and knowledge structure. Third,deepen coordination and cooperation with U.S. counterparts.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 利益集团政治 结盟游说 国际货币权力 不对称依赖 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]