江苏沿海精细化风暴潮模式研究与应用  

Studies and applications of refined storm surge model for Jiangsu coast

作　　者：罗锋[1,2] 盛建明[1,2] 潘锡山[1,2] 刘秋兴[3] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省海涂研究中心,南京210036 [2]江苏省海洋环境监测预报中心,南京210036 [3]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《南京大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第5期687-694,共8页Journal of Nanjing University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家海洋公益性行业科研专项(201005006);中国博士后科学基金(20100481459);江苏省科技支撑计划项目(BE2011812)

摘　　要：针对江苏沿海易遭受风暴潮影响的现状,分析了江苏历史上台风风暴潮灾害特征.选用Holland台风风场模型计算风场为强迫场,通过目前被国际上广泛接受的水动力模型ADCIRC建立台风风暴潮模式.建立的江苏海域精细化风暴潮数值预报模型,结合江苏沿海岸线和地形变化特点,采用非结构网格技术对研究区域复杂海域进行重点加密,选取历史上影响江苏沿海典型的四个台风,进行江苏沿海精细化风暴潮后报检验.通过对影响江苏海域的不同时期的台风风暴潮过程的数值预报检验可以得出:台风风暴潮数值预报模型的后报相对误差为18.3%,预报相对误差不大于20%,能够较好的预报风暴潮过程的发展,刻画不同台风过程引起的风暴增水过程,实现了江苏省沿海台风风暴潮的3d数值预报.In order to evaluate the present status of storm surge risk for Jiangsu Province,we analyzed the characteristics of the typhoon storm surge disasters in the history of the Jiangsu coastal areas.Computational wind farm of Holland typhoon field model was choosing to be the forced wind field,hydrodynamic model ADCIRC（Advanced circulation model for oceanic,coastal and estuarine waters）was applied to establish a refined typhoon storm surge model for the Jiangsu coast.The refined storm surge numerical prediction model of Jiangsu marine area was constructed in combination with the various characteristics of the coastline and topography in Jiangsu coastal waters.The area for modeling was encrypted using the technique of unstructured grids.Selecting four typical typhoons,which had significant impacts on the Jiangsu coast in history,a refined storm surge model was applied to hindcast the typhoon effects.On the basis of the forcast verification of numerical storm surge process influencing the region for different periods,and the hindcast relative error of the typhoon storm surge numerical forecast model was 18.3%,the percentage of the forecast relative error is less than 20%,indicating that the model is able to forecast the development of stormsurge process well.The model provides the prediction of the storm surge effects three days ahead of the occurrence of the typhoon.

关 键 词：台风风暴潮 ADCIRC模型 精细化 江苏沿海 

分 类 号：P731.34[天文地球—海洋科学]