贸易政策透明度与贸易便利化影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型的分析  

Trade Policy Transparency and Trade Facilitation Effect: An Analysis Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：佟家栋[1] 李连庆[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学,300071 [2]南开大学经济学院,300071

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2014年第4期3-16,共14页Nankai Economic Studies

摘　　要：使用可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)可以探讨贸易便利化的经济影响和福利收益,提高国际贸易透明度,而之前鲜有论文讨论过提高贸易政策透明度的贸易政策改革对贸易和福利方面的影响。本文采用CGE模型探讨在APEC内减少腐败、提高透明度以降低贸易成本所造成的经济影响。研究发现随着提高透明度和降低腐败程度,全球各经济体都会获得显著的贸易和福利收益。通过提高亚太地区的透明度到平均水平,全球福利会增加超过2000亿美元,各国的GDP、进出口贸易、资本存量、居民效用等也都会发生正向的改变,并且大部分增加的福利都会发生在正在进行改革的经济体内。By computable general equilibrium model （CGE）, we can investigate the trade facilitation effect and welfare gain of improving international trade transparency. On con- trary, current studies rarely analyzed the effect on trade and welfare of trade policy reforms such as improving trade transparency. In this paper, we use CGE model to study the economic consequence of reform measures that tend to reduce trade cost in APEC region, such as reducing corruption and improving trade transparency. By improving trade transparency in APEC region to normal level, worldwide welfare would increase by more than 200 billion USD, in the meantime, GDP, trade volume, capital stock and the residents＇ utility would all increase. Moreover, most of the welfare gain would fall upon those economies that adopt reform measures.

关 键 词：贸易政策透明度 贸易便利化 可计算一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易] F224[经济管理—产业经济]