通货膨胀与经济增长的非线性门限效应——基于面板数据平滑转换回归模型的实证分析  

Nonlinear Threshold Effect between Inflation and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

作　　者：黄智淋[1] 成禹同 董志勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学数量经济研究院,361021 [2]北京大学经济学院,100871

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2014年第4期112-122,共11页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2013M530448);国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国中长期经济增长与结构变动趋势研究"(09AZD013);国家开发银行课题"双重环流--开放经济下的中国资本流动"的资助

摘　　要：文章基于我国31个省市1979—2011年的面板数据,以通货膨胀率作为门限变量,运用面板数据平滑转换回归模型,考察通货膨胀与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究结果表明:通货膨胀与经济增长之间的关系存在非线性的通货膨胀率门限效应,当通货膨胀率低于门限值时,通货膨胀与经济增长正相关;而当通货膨胀率高于门限值时,通货膨胀与经济增长显著负相关。这意味着当通货膨胀率超过门限值时,通货膨胀不利于促进经济增长。Based on China＇s 31 province-level panel data from 1979 to 2011, setting inflation as threshold variable and applying a panel smooth transition regression model, this paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth in China. Results indicate that there exists a nonlinear inflation threshold effect between inflation and economic growth. Inflation is positively correlated with economic growth when inflation below the threshold; while inflation above the threshold, it is statistically significant negatively correlated with economic growth. This implies that inflation is detrimental to economic growth when inflation above the threshold.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 经济增长 面板数据平滑转换回归模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F822.5F124