基于MERRA资料的西北地区夏季降水估算  

Estimation of summer precipitation in Northwestern Regions based on MERRA data

作　　者：周寅[1,2] 龚绍琦[1,3] 史建桥 潘虹[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学遥感学院 [2]94857部队61分队 [3]南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室 [4]94783部队61分队

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2014年第6期149-153,共5页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40801145);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目;南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室开放基金

摘　　要：利用1981年-2010年西北地区夏季降水观测数据和MEERA(Modem-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications)再分析资料,耦合DEM(Digital Elevation Model)数据,采用基于区域分月的多元回归算法,建立模型进行降水估算。结果表明,6月、7月、8月和夏季平均绝对误差分别为8.0 mm、8.0 mm、7.9 mm、20.8mm,平均相对误差分别为19.0%、14.4%、22.2%、15.0%,模型估算结果较MERRA降水资料误差明显减小。模型估算结果不仅保持着原始MERRA降水产品的分布特征,而且可以精细反映局部降水分布特征。In this paper,a monthly multiple regression algorithm for the certain region was used to establish a computational model for the precipitation estimation based on the summer precipitation observation data,MERRA （Modem-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications） reanalysis,and the DEM （Digital Elevation Model） data from 1981-2010 in the Northwestern Regions.The results showed that the average absolute errors of estimated precipitation are 8.0 mm,8.0 mm,7.9 mm,and 20.8 mm in June,July,August,and the whole summer,respectively,and the average relative errors are 19.0％,14.4％,22.2％ and 15.0％,respectively.The estimated precipitation has fewer errors compared with that from MERRA analysis.Moreover,the model estimates of precipitation have the same distribution characteristics as those of the original MERRA precipitation product,and can also reflect the local distribution.

关 键 词：MERRA 降水 地形 西北地区 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]