“三期叠加”下的风险迁徙与商行应对  

Risk Migration under the“Three Period Superimposed”and Countermeasures of Commercial Banks

作　　者：刘国辉[1] 王媛[2] 

机构地区：[1]华夏银行东营分行,山东东营257000 [2]中国人民银行济南分行,山东济南250021

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2014年第9期59-64,共6页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要："三期叠加"下,商业银行面临的系统性风险及承担比例呈上升态势,非系统性风险由经济上行期的正态分布演变为行业、企业间的差异化分布,导致商业银行利润增长与规模扩张的正相关关系,表外业务发展的环境将不复存在,商业银行传统的盈利模式受到冲击。对此,商业银行应通过调整最优信贷规模、调整风险偏好及风险管理方式、开展普惠金融服务、发展互联网金融等途径进行应对。Under the“Three Period Superimposed”, the systemic risk and the proportion of risks faced with the commercial banks take on the rise. Non-systemic risk evolves from the normal distribution in the economic ascending period into the differentiated distribution among industries and enterprises. This causes the positive correlation between profit increase and scale expansion of commercial banks and the environment of developing off-sheet business to no lon-ger exist, and the traditional profit model of commercial banks are impacted. Measures such as adjusting the optimal credit scale,adjusting risk preference and risk management model,promoting inclusive financial service and develop-ing internet finance.

关 键 词：“三期叠加” 风险 最优规模 

分 类 号：F832.33[经济管理—金融学]