基于等维新息模型的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测  

Prediction of Gas Emssion Amount of Mine Based on Equal-Dimension New-Information Model

作　　者：杨雪[1] 赵耀江[1] 温伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学矿业工程学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2014年第10期358-363,共6页Computer Simulation

摘　　要：矿井瓦斯涌出量预测是瓦斯防治的重要技术环节,能够为煤矿安全生产提供保障。为了提高矿井瓦斯涌出量的预测精度,将等维新息模型的理论结合到灰色线性回归组合模型中,建立等维新息灰色线性回归组合模型,并应用MATLAB软件进行编程。以某煤矿相对瓦斯涌出量统计数据为实例,利用等维新息灰色线性回归组合模型对其瓦斯涌出量进行预测,分析了模型的最佳维数,通过检验得出模型的精度等级为一级。结果表明:等维新息灰色线性回归组合模型在对矿井深部瓦斯涌出量进行预测时,精度高于原有的灰色预测模型,取得了良好的预测效果。可将此模型的软件应用到瓦斯监控系统中,以提高系统的技术性与实用性。Mine gas emission forecasting is an important technical aspect of gas prevention and control; it is able to provide protection for coal mine production safety. In order to improve the prediction accuracy in the prediction of mine gas emission, we combined the method of equal - dimension new - information model with gray combination of linear regression model, buit up an linear regression model of equal - dimension new - information gray combination. Then we programed the new model with MATLAB software. Taking the gas emission quantity statistics in a coal mine as an example, we used the linear regression model to predict the trend of the gas emission quantity, and the best di- mension of the model was analyzed. After testing, the accuracy of the mode is the first rank. The results show that compared with original grey prediction model, the linear regression model of equal - dimension new - information gray combination has higher accuracy; it achieves a good result for the prediction of gas emission in deep mine. In the fu- ture, we may consider the application of this model＇s software to the gas monitoring system to improve the system＇s technical and practical.

关 键 词：等维新息模型 灰色线性回归组合模型 瓦斯涌出量 预测 瓦斯监控系统 

分 类 号：TB24[一般工业技术—工程设计测绘]